Dordrecht 4-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Eindhoven (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dordrecht face FC Eindhoven.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Dordrecht welcome FC Eindhoven to Matchoholic Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L at Matchoholic Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dordrecht's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dordrecht have won 0, FC Eindhoven 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 62% versus FC Eindhoven 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 65% | FC Eindhoven 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.21 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.816 / defence 1.069 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.947 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.312. Data: 60 Dordrecht games / 59 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 39%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Dordrecht 1.21 / FC Eindhoven 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.816 / def 1.069 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.947 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Dordrecht 4 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 34% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.82x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.74
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
FC Eindhoven xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.14
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.33 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 16W 14D 30L from 60 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 14L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Eindhoven by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Eindhoven's away record stands at 12W 8D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Dordrecht are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.77 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 16W 14D 30L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 32W 14D 14L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
6
Draws
3
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, FC Eindhoven have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, FC Eindhoven 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dordrecht) and 45% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 34% of games; FC Eindhoven in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 52% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dordrecht's recent games and 45% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC Eindhoven 4-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.21 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 34% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 39%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 65%, FC Eindhoven 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.