Dordrecht 2-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 2W 3D 5L at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Dordrecht against 0.60 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Almere City FC 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 71% and Almere City FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 75% | Almere City FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.78 xG and Almere City FC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.953 / defence 1.341 | Almere City FC attack 0.805 / defence 1.650. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.650 — this is suppressing Dordrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Dordrecht games / 24 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Dordrecht 1.78 / Almere City FC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.953 / def 1.341 | Almere City FC attack 0.805 / def 1.650 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Almere City FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Dordrecht 2 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 44% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Dordrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.95) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.81x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
44%
2.27
23%
4.38
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.30
1.52
Almere City FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.52 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 5W 5D 14L from 24 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 14L across 24 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Dordrecht against 0.75 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 2W 4D 5L from 11 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.42 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 5W 5D 14L in their last 24 games (0.83 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 6D 14L in their last 24 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Dordrecht's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.91 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 54%, Almere City FC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Dordrecht) and 64% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 36% of games; Almere City FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Dordrecht's games and 73% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Dordrecht's recent games and 64% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 25, as Dordrecht and Almere City FC drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.78 xG and Almere City FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against Almere City FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.65, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 33%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 75%, Almere City FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.83 PPG, Almere City FC 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.