Den Bosch vs NAC Breda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and NAC Breda meet at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 4D 3L at De Vliert — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
NAC Breda have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.70 for NAC Breda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, NAC Breda in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, NAC Breda have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Den Bosch's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. NAC Breda have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Den Bosch goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and NAC Breda 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 64% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.76 xG and NAC Breda 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / defence 1.131 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 Den Bosch games / 11 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 42%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 36% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Den Bosch 1.76 / NAC Breda 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / def 1.131 | NAC Breda attack 1.144 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.89
NAC Breda xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs NAC Breda kick off?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 April 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda part of?
Den Bosch vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 36% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Den Bosch and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
Record (6 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.14x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
36%
2.74
22%
4.60
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.65
1.89
NAC Breda xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
5%
18.20
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.89 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 15W 10D 20L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 20L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.09 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 9W 7D 7L from 23 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 4W 8D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.27 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 15W 10D 20L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 12W 13D 20L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or NAC Breda away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 3 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
1
Draws
4
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, NAC Breda have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Den Bosch 2-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Den Bosch, 56% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Den Bosch and 65% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Den Bosch's games and 56% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Den Bosch's matches and 65% of NAC Breda's.
Do Den Bosch and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.