Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Den Bosch (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Den Bosch face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Den Bosch have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jong Utrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Den Bosch: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 2 for Jong Utrecht, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 2–3 with Jong Utrecht winning.
The historical record gives Den Bosch a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 58% versus Jong Utrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Jong Utrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.958 / defence 0.879 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.744 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.448. Data: 74 Den Bosch games / 74 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Jong Utrecht 4.35. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 70% | Jong Utrecht 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Monday 20 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Den Bosch 1.52 / Jong Utrecht 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.958 / def 0.879 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.744 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 April 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 51% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 5W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 2W.
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.87
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Jong Utrecht xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.95 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 74 games, going 28W 19D 27L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.88 PPG from 74 outings (15W 20D 39L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Den Bosch carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 17W 11D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.58 points per game from 36 outings (4W 9D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.16 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 28W 19D 27L in their last 74 games (1.39 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 20D 39L in their last 74 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.72 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Den Bosch
3
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 5, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 53%, Jong Utrecht 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Den Bosch) and 58% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 56% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Den Bosch's recent games and 58% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 34, as Den Bosch and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.52 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 51% | Draw 26% | Jong Utrecht 23%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Jong Utrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.