Den Bosch 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face Jong Utrecht.

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Fixture Analysis

Den Bosch welcome Jong Utrecht to Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 21). Kick-off is Monday 27 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Den Bosch — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Utrecht stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jong Utrecht away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.20 PPG versus Jong Utrecht's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Den Bosch's games and 70% of Jong Utrecht's (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Den Bosch have won 3, Jong Utrecht 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2024, ended Den Bosch 3–0 Jong Utrecht — a Den Bosch win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Den Bosch in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 48% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 57% | Jong Utrecht 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.85 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.972 / defence 1.068 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.761 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.300. Jong Utrecht's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 60 games and Jong Utrecht's last 60.

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 56% | Draw 23% | Jong Utrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.80 | Draw 4.29 | Jong Utrecht 4.74. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong Utrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong Utrecht 70% (last 10 away games).

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