Den Bosch 1-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face Jong PSV U21.

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Analysis

Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Stadion De Vliert to face Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Friday 1 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Current Form

Den Bosch's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.00 for Jong PSV U21. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2023, ended Den Bosch 1–0 Jong PSV U21 — a Den Bosch win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Den Bosch — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Jong PSV U21 — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 66% | Jong PSV U21 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.84 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.871 / defence 1.063 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.918 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.225. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Den Bosch's projected output up. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 41 games and Jong PSV U21's last 41.

Result probabilities: Den Bosch 52% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 25%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.91 | Draw 4.38 | Jong PSV U21 4.04. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 40% (last 10 away games).

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