Den Bosch vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host FC Volendam at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 4D 3L at De Vliert — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.30 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Volendam have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Den Bosch.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 0–2 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 74% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 66% | FC Volendam 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.32 xG and FC Volendam 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / defence 1.131 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Den Bosch games / 11 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 59% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 59% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Den Bosch 2.32 / FC Volendam 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / def 1.131 | FC Volendam attack 0.824 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Volendam xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Volendam kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
59%
1.70
19%
5.15
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.69
1.36
FC Volendam xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
2%
47.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.36 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 10D 21L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.09 PPG from 47 outings (14W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.23 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.52 points per game from 23 outings (3W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.30 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 16W 10D 21L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 9D 24L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Volendam away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Nov 2021, when FC Volendam won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when FC Volendam 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 83%, FC Volendam at 48%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Den Bosch) and 56% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Den Bosch's games and 48% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Den Bosch's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Den Bosch and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.