Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 47%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Den Bosch welcome FC Eindhoven to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Thursday 12 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Den Bosch are significantly better at De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Eindhoven have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Den Bosch.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Den Bosch winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Eindhoven have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 54% versus FC Eindhoven 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 59% | FC Eindhoven 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.72 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.949 / defence 0.990 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.837 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.492. Data: 64 Den Bosch games / 63 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 3.85. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | FC Eindhoven 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Den Bosch 1.72 / FC Eindhoven 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.949 / def 0.990 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.837 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 47% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 6W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.74
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.96
1.24
FC Eindhoven xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
5%
21.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.24 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 15D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.30 PPG from 63 outings (23W 13D 27L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.33 PPG, FC Eindhoven on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Den Bosch's home form reads 14W 9D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (13W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.48 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 23W 15D 25L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Den Bosch have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
1
Draws
6
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Den Bosch 5-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 52%, FC Eindhoven 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Den Bosch) and 52% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 42% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Den Bosch's recent games and 52% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out FC Eindhoven 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.72 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.24 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 47% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 26%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, FC Eindhoven 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.33 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.