Den Bosch 2-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion De Vliert: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, De Graafschap in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Den Bosch, 0 for De Graafschap and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 49% versus De Graafschap 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 61% | De Graafschap 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.14 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.100 / defence 1.119 | De Graafschap attack 1.071 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.333. Data: 51 Den Bosch games / 51 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 29%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 3.45. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 60% | De Graafschap 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 50% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Den Bosch 2.14 / De Graafschap 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.100 / def 1.119 | De Graafschap attack 1.071 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.60
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Den Bosch 2 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 50% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
Record (2 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.07x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
50%
1.99
21%
4.81
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.73
1.60
De Graafschap xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
3%
29.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.60 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 5D 27L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 18W 15D 18L from 51 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.35 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (12W 1D 12L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 11W 4D 10L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.37 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 19W 5D 27L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 18W 15D 18L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.48 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
3
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, De Graafschap have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 48%, De Graafschap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Den Bosch and 68% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 36%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 56% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Den Bosch's matches and 68% of De Graafschap's.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Den Bosch edge out De Graafschap 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat De Graafschap 2-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.14 xG and De Graafschap 1.60 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 50% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 29%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 61%, De Graafschap 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.22 PPG, De Graafschap 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.