Den Bosch 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vliert plays host to Den Bosch versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at Stadion De Vliert this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Almere City FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Den Bosch, 0.90 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 40% and Almere City FC 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 50% | Almere City FC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.47 xG and Almere City FC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.786 / defence 1.421 | Almere City FC attack 1.044 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.376. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Den Bosch games / 10 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 1.96. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 40% | Almere City FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 28% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Den Bosch 1.47 / Almere City FC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.786 / def 1.421 | Almere City FC attack 1.044 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Almere City FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kick off?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Den Bosch 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC part of?
Den Bosch vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 28% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Den Bosch and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.79x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.04x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
28%
3.62
21%
4.68
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.51
2.04
Almere City FC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
4%
27.89
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Den Bosch and 2.04 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 3W 0D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, 0.90 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Den Bosch against 0.90 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Almere City FC away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.20 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 5-2 on 21 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 40% for Den Bosch, 100% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Den Bosch and 80% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Den Bosch's games and 100% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Den Bosch's matches and 80% of Almere City FC's.
Do Den Bosch and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Almere City FC 1-0 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.47 xG and Almere City FC 2.04 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.79 / defence 1.42 against Almere City FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.41, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 28% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 51%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 50%, Almere City FC 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 0.90 PPG, Almere City FC 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.