De Graafschap vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Waalwijk meet at De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–4 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 75% and Waalwijk 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | Waalwijk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / defence 1.397 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 De Graafschap games / 42 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 29% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 51%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.45 | Draw 5.00 | Waalwijk 1.96. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Waalwijk 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 29% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG De Graafschap 1.65 / Waalwijk 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.011 / def 1.397 | Waalwijk attack 0.927 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Waalwijk xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Waalwijk kick off?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at De Vijverberg.
Where is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk part of?
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 29% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 51% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both De Graafschap and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
Record (2 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.01) and Waalwijk's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.93x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.20.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
29%
3.45
20%
4.89
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.85
2.20
Waalwijk xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
11%
9.03
19%
5.19
Win to Nil
3%
31.14
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.20 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 18W 11D 15L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 15W 16D 13L from 44 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.39 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (10W 4D 8L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 6W 10D 6L from 22 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.73 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 77%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 16D 13L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Waalwijk away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.55 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for De Graafschap, 77% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 59% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of De Graafschap's games and 77% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 59% of Waalwijk's.
Do De Graafschap and Waalwijk tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.