De Graafschap 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
De Graafschap and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 November 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Stadion De Vijverberg this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Telstar (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar away from home this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.40 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap have seen both teams score in just 29% of their matches, Telstar in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 50% versus Telstar 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Telstar 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.35 xG and Telstar 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / defence 0.886 | Telstar attack 0.680 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.545. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 De Graafschap games / 14 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 26%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Telstar 3.85. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 29% | Telstar 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG De Graafschap 1.35 / Telstar 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.835 / def 0.886 | Telstar attack 0.680 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Telstar xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Telstar kick off?
De Graafschap vs Telstar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is De Graafschap vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Telstar part of?
De Graafschap vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 47% chance of winning, Telstar a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both De Graafschap and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.83) and Telstar's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.68x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.28
0.93
Telstar xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.93 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 8W 2D 4L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Telstar's form line: 4W 4D 6L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.29 scored and 2.21 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Telstar in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Telstar have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Telstar away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.57 PPG; Telstar away: 1.43 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Telstar in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 5-1 on 12 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Telstar?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 29% (De Graafschap) and 29% (Telstar) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for De Graafschap and 71% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 43% of games; Telstar in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 29% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of De Graafschap's matches and 71% of Telstar's.
Do De Graafschap and Telstar tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Telstar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Telstar finished level at 1-1 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.35 xG and Telstar 0.93 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Telstar attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 47% | Draw 28% | Telstar 26%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 71%, Telstar 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.