De Graafschap 2-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 February 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against De Graafschap's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with Roda winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Roda have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Roda in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 56% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.27 xG and Roda 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.861 / defence 1.004 | Roda attack 0.851 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.221. Data: 62 De Graafschap games / 62 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 28% | Roda 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 40% | Roda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 41% | Draw 28% | Roda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG De Graafschap 1.27 / Roda 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.861 / def 1.004 | Roda attack 0.851 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Roda xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Roda.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 41% chance of winning, Roda a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | Roda 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.57
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.31
1.04
Roda xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
9%
11.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.04 for Roda, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 64 games, going 22W 18D 24L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.58 PPG from 64 outings (28W 17D 19L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.31 PPG, Roda on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 11D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.41 points per game from 32 outings (12W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.77 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 games (1.31 PPG), while Roda have gone 28W 17D 19L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.19 PPG; Roda away: 1.41 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Roda in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 53%, Roda 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (De Graafschap) and 56% (Roda).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 53% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of De Graafschap's recent games and 56% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Roda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Roda in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Roda 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.27 xG and Roda 1.04 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 41% | Draw 28% | Roda 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Roda's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.31 PPG, Roda 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.