De Graafschap 0-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as De Graafschap take on Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Roda at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 0.83 xG and Roda 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.854 / away 1.015. Data: 0 De Graafschap games / 0 Roda games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 40% | Roda 34%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.85 | Draw 2.50 | Roda 2.94. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 40% | Roda 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG De Graafschap 0.83 / Roda 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Roda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.854 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Roda xG
40%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Roda kick off?
De Graafschap vs Roda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
De Graafschap 0 - 3 Roda.
Where is De Graafschap vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Roda part of?
De Graafschap vs Roda is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 26% chance of winning, Roda a 34% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both De Graafschap and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and Roda in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.92
40%
2.47
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
1.83
0.99
Roda xG
3.92
26%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
9%
10.57
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.99 for Roda, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
Roda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
5
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Roda have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat De Graafschap 0-3 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 0.83 xG and Roda 0.99 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Roda outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Roda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 26% | Draw 40% | Roda 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.