De Graafschap 1-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as De Graafschap face NAC Breda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
De Graafschap at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
NAC Breda have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for De Graafschap, 1.40 for NAC Breda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, NAC Breda edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2023, ended De Graafschap 0–2 NAC Breda — a NAC Breda win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 56% and NAC Breda 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 62% | NAC Breda 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.931 / defence 0.765 | NAC Breda attack 1.207 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.285. NAC Breda have an above-average attack rating of 1.207, which lifts their away xG to 1.19. De Graafschap have a tight defence (rating 0.765), which is pulling NAC Breda's projected output down. Data: built from De Graafschap's last 50 games and NAC Breda's last 50.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.21 | Draw 3.59 | NAC Breda 3.71. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (De Graafschap's last 10 home games and NAC Breda's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: De Graafschap 50% (last 10 home games) | NAC Breda 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG De Graafschap 1.59 / NAC Breda 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.931 / def 0.765 | NAC Breda attack 1.207 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.19
NAC Breda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ De Graafschap vs NAC Breda FAQs
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 13) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.93x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.21x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from De Graafschap's last 50 games and NAC Breda's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.59
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
NAC Breda xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ De Graafschap vs NAC Breda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.19 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 9D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.48 PPG from 50 outings (22W 8D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.48 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
De Graafschap's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, NAC Breda have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 4D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.72 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 76%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap (Home) vs NAC Breda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
De Graafschap
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ De Graafschap vs NAC Breda Form FAQs
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 21W 9D 20L in their last 50 games (1.44 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 22W 8D 20L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or NAC Breda away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.72 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ De Graafschap vs NAC Breda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, NAC Breda 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for De Graafschap and 76% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ De Graafschap vs NAC Breda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in De Graafschap and NAC Breda matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of De Graafschap's games and 76% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are De Graafschap and NAC Breda matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of De Graafschap's matches and 76% of NAC Breda's.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 92% of NAC Breda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out NAC Breda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat NAC Breda 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. NAC Breda landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.93 / defence 0.77 against NAC Breda attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 28% | NAC Breda 27%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 62%, NAC Breda 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.44 PPG, NAC Breda 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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