De Graafschap 2-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host Helmond Sport at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion De Vijverberg. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Helmond Sport have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.20 PPG, Helmond Sport 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. De Graafschap's 30% rate and Helmond Sport's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for De Graafschap, 1 for Helmond Sport and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2022, ended 2–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 55% versus Helmond Sport 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 55% | Helmond Sport 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Helmond Sport 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.879 / defence 0.928 | Helmond Sport attack 0.691 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.222. Data: 64 De Graafschap games / 64 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Helmond Sport 5.26. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 30% | Helmond Sport 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 6 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Helmond Sport 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.879 / def 0.928 | Helmond Sport attack 0.691 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Helmond Sport xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kick off?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 6 March 2023 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport part of?
De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 56% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both De Graafschap and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
Record (3 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 0 | Helmond Sport 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.88) and Helmond Sport's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.95
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.35
0.78
Helmond Sport xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
25.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.78 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, De Graafschap have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 23W 18D 23L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport's form line: 16W 12D 36L from 64 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helmond Sport.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, De Graafschap have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 6W 6D 20L from 32 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 0.97 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 23W 18D 23L in their last 64 games (1.36 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 16W 12D 36L in their last 64 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Helmond Sport away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.28 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.75 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
1
Draws
3
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Helmond Sport have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Helmond Sport?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 53%, Helmond Sport 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (De Graafschap) and 44% (Helmond Sport).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Helmond Sport?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 41% of Helmond Sport's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of De Graafschap's recent games and 44% of Helmond Sport's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Helmond Sport 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Helmond Sport 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Helmond Sport attack 0.69 / defence 1.00, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 56% | Draw 25% | Helmond Sport 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 55%, Helmond Sport 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.