De Graafschap 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in De Graafschap's favour (1.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 50% and Almere City FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 64% | Almere City FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.787 / defence 1.149 | Almere City FC attack 0.873 / defence 1.745. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.745 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 De Graafschap games / 22 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Almere City FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.787 / def 1.149 | Almere City FC attack 0.873 / def 1.745 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Almere City FC xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kick off?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC part of?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 39% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both De Graafschap and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.87x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.91
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.08
1.51
Almere City FC xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.51 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 11W 4D 7L from 22 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.68 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.55 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC in 73%.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 games (1.68 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Almere City FC away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.09 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.82 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Almere City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Almere City FC in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
3
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Almere City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when De Graafschap 2-2 Almere City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Almere City FC 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for De Graafschap and 73% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of De Graafschap's games and 82% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of De Graafschap's matches and 73% of Almere City FC's.
Do De Graafschap and Almere City FC tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Almere City FC 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Almere City FC 1.51 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almere City FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Almere City FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.75, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 39% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 36%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 64%, Almere City FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Almere City FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.