De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Almere City FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Almere City FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 67% | Almere City FC 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.055 / defence 1.258 | Almere City FC attack 1.051 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.710. Data: 41 De Graafschap games / 41 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 54%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 3.85 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 1.85. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 26% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG De Graafschap 1.53 / Almere City FC 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.055 / def 1.258 | Almere City FC attack 1.051 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.781 / away 1.710 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Almere City FC xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kick off?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
De Graafschap 1 - 4 Almere City FC.
Where is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC part of?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 26% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 54% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both De Graafschap and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.05x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.26.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
26%
3.88
20%
4.99
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.79
2.26
Almere City FC xG
3.88
26%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
10%
9.58
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
3%
37.22
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for De Graafschap and 2.26 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 18W 11D 14L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 15L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.67 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 10W 4D 7L from 21 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 9W 3D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.09 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 67%.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 22W 6D 15L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Almere City FC away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.62 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for De Graafschap, 76% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for De Graafschap and 71% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of De Graafschap's games and 76% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of De Graafschap's matches and 71% of Almere City FC's.
Do De Graafschap and Almere City FC tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat De Graafschap 1-4 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.53 xG and Almere City FC 2.26 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC outscored their 2.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.05 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 26% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 54%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 67%, Almere City FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.51 PPG, Almere City FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.