Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong AZ make the trip to Kooi Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cambuur at Kooi Stadion this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Cambuur. A 1.20 PPG lead over Jong AZ (2.30 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong AZ in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cambuur, 3 for Jong AZ and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 53% and Jong AZ 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 50% | Jong AZ 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.89 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.132 / defence 0.753 | Jong AZ attack 1.231 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.448. Jong AZ have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Cambuur games / 70 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 50% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 3.70. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 20 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 50% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Cambuur 1.89 / Jong AZ 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.132 / def 0.753 | Jong AZ attack 1.231 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.448 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong AZ xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong AZ kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 March 2026 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Cambuur 3 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong AZ part of?
Cambuur vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 50% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cambuur and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Jong AZ in?
Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.13) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.23x) against Cambuur's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
50%
1.98
22%
4.47
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.24
1.34
Jong AZ xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
4%
24.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.34 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 42W 13D 15L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 23W 14D 33L from 70 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong AZ.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 2.17 PPG from 35 outings (23W 7D 5L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 15W 6D 14L from 35 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.74 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ in 67%.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 42W 13D 15L in their last 70 games (1.99 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 23W 14D 33L in their last 70 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong AZ away?
Cambuur's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.17 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Jong AZ have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Cambuur 3-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 57%, Jong AZ 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 51% for Cambuur and 69% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 49% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cambuur's games and 66% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Cambuur's matches and 69% of Jong AZ's.
Do Cambuur and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Cambuur 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Cambuur 3-4 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.89 xG and Jong AZ 1.34 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.13 / defence 0.75 against Jong AZ attack 1.23 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 50% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 27%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 50%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.