Cambuur 0-0 Helmond Sport – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cambuur at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Helmond Sport meet at Kooi Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Cambuur (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Kooi Stadion this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Cambuur are significantly better at Kooi Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Helmond Sport's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Cambuur. A 0.60 PPG lead over Helmond Sport (2.10 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cambuur — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Helmond Sport — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 51% versus Helmond Sport 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 49% | Helmond Sport 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.32 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.349 / defence 0.797 | Helmond Sport attack 0.783 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.461. Cambuur carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Cambuur games / 55 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 69% | Draw 18% | Helmond Sport 13%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | Helmond Sport 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Helmond Sport lead the H2H ledger, but Cambuur carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Cambuur as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 60% | Helmond Sport 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 69% | Draw 18% | Helmond Sport 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Cambuur 2.32 / Helmond Sport 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.349 / def 0.797 | Helmond Sport attack 0.783 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Helmond Sport kick off?
Cambuur vs Helmond Sport kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Cambuur 0 - 0 Helmond Sport.
Where is Cambuur vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Helmond Sport part of?
Cambuur vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 69% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cambuur and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Helmond Sport?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 2 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Helmond Sport in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambuur's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Helmond Sport's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. Flip it around — Helmond Sport's attack (0.78x) against Cambuur's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
69%
1.45
18%
5.59
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.23
0.91
Helmond Sport xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
1%
77.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Cambuur and 0.91 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Helmond Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 32W 10D 13L from 55 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helmond Sport, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 25L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambuur by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 18W 4D 5L from 27 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Helmond Sport's away record stands at 6W 5D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.40 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helmond Sport in 65%.
Defensively: Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Helmond Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 32W 10D 13L in their last 55 games (1.93 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Helmond Sport away?
Cambuur's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 2.15 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Cambuur or Helmond Sport been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambuur have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Helmond Sport in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cambuur
3
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Helmond Sport?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and Helmond Sport?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 56%, Helmond Sport 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cambuur) and 63% (Helmond Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helmond Sport in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cambuur's games and 63% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Cambuur's matches and 63% of Helmond Sport's.
Do Cambuur and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cambuur's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Cambuur and Helmond Sport drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.32 xG and Helmond Sport 0.91 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cambuur fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Helmond Sport landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.35 / defence 0.80 against Helmond Sport attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 69% | Draw 18% | Helmond Sport 13%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 49%, Helmond Sport 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Helmond Sport's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.