Cambuur 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cambuur have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur at Cambuur Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Groningen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cambuur, 1.10 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cambuur lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 47% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 67% | Groningen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.01 xG and Groningen 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.117 / defence 1.385 | Groningen attack 1.004 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.296. Data: 11 Cambuur games / 11 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 43% | Draw 23% | Groningen 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Groningen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 60% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Groningen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 43% | Draw 23% | Groningen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Cambuur 2.01 / Groningen 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.117 / def 1.385 | Groningen attack 1.004 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Groningen xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Groningen kick off?
Cambuur vs Groningen kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Cambuur 2 - 1 Groningen.
Where is Cambuur vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Groningen part of?
Cambuur vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 43% chance of winning, Groningen a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Cambuur and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
Record (4 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Groningen 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (1.12) and Groningen's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (1.00x) against Cambuur's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.37
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Cambuur xG
Total xG
3.82
1.80
Groningen xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.74
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
13%
7.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
5%
21.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.80 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cambuur come into this having played 45 games, going 9W 6D 30L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Groningen sit at 0.71 PPG from 45 outings (8W 8D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Cambuur against 0.71 for Groningen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cambuur's home form reads 6W 1D 15L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Groningen have taken 0.55 points per game from 22 outings (3W 3D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambuur are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.02 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Groningen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 9W 6D 30L in their last 45 games (0.73 PPG), while Groningen have gone 8W 8D 29L in their last 45 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Groningen away?
Cambuur's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.86 PPG; Groningen away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Groningen?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Groningen see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 41%, Groningen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Cambuur and 59% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 46% of games; Groningen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cambuur's recent matches and 54% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cambuur vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Cambuur's matches and 59% of Groningen's.
Do Cambuur and Groningen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Groningen in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Groningen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Groningen 2-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 2.01 xG and Groningen 1.80 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Groningen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.12 / defence 1.39 against Groningen attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 43% | Draw 23% | Groningen 34%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 67%, Groningen 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.73 PPG, Groningen 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.