Almere City FC 0-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 55%, yet in-form MVV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almere City FC vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 16 as Almere City FC welcome MVV to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Almere City FC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 1W 2D 4L this season (7 games, 0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 0D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.86 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. MVV's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
MVV in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 86% and MVV 43% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 79% | MVV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 2.13 xG and MVV 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 1.032 / defence 1.573 | MVV attack 0.564 / defence 1.625. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.625 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Almere City FC games / 14 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 55% | Draw 21% | MVV 25%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | MVV 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form MVV (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Almere City FC 86% | MVV 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 55% | Draw 21% | MVV 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Almere City FC 2.13 / MVV 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 1.032 / def 1.573 | MVV attack 0.564 / def 1.625 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
MVV xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs MVV kick off?
Almere City FC vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs MVV?
Almere City FC 0 - 2 MVV.
Where is Almere City FC vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs MVV part of?
Almere City FC vs MVV is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 55% chance of winning, MVV a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almere City FC and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (1.03) and MVV's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.81
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
3.51
1.38
MVV xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
3%
34.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.38 for MVV, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 6W 0D 8L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almere City FC on 0.93 PPG, MVV on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 1W 2D 4L from 7 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 2W 0D 5L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.14 scored and 2.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and MVV in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while MVV have gone 6W 0D 8L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or MVV away?
MVV's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.71 PPG; MVV away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and MVV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Almere City FC
1
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 3, MVV have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when MVV 1-1 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and MVV?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 86%, MVV 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Almere City FC and 57% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Almere City FC's games and 29% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Almere City FC's matches and 57% of MVV's.
Do Almere City FC and MVV tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, MVV in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Almere City FC 0-2 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 2.13 xG and MVV 1.38 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.57 against MVV attack 0.56 / defence 1.62, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 55% | Draw 21% | MVV 25%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 79%, MVV 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almere City FC 0.93 PPG, MVV 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.