Almere City FC 0-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Almere City FC welcome Emmen to Yanmar Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almere City FC have posted 1W 2D 7L at Yanmar Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Almere City FC, 1 for Emmen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Almere City FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 67% versus Emmen 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 67% | Emmen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 0.77 xG and Emmen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.460 | Emmen attack 0.764 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.419. Emmen's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 25 Almere City FC games / 24 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 18% | Draw 25% | Emmen 57%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 60% | Emmen 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 18% | Draw 25% | Emmen 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Almere City FC 0.77 / Emmen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.850 / def 1.460 | Emmen attack 0.764 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Emmen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Emmen xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Emmen kick off?
Almere City FC vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 February 2022 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Almere City FC 0 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Almere City FC vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Emmen part of?
Almere City FC vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 18% chance of winning, Emmen a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Almere City FC and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Almere City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Emmen 1W.
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.85) and Emmen's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
18%
5.52
25%
3.97
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.58
Emmen xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
4%
26.85
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 15.1 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.58 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 4W 7D 13L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 16W 3D 5L from 24 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 1.33 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almere City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 8W 2D 2L from 12 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.58 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Emmen in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 4W 7D 13L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Emmen have gone 16W 3D 5L in their last 24 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 0.75 PPG; Emmen away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Emmen in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Emmen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Emmen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Almere City FC
1
Draws
1
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 4, Emmen have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Almere City FC 4-2 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Emmen?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Emmen 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Almere City FC) and 42% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 42% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Almere City FC's recent games and 42% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almere City FC and Emmen tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Emmen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almere City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC and Emmen finished level at 0-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 0.77 xG and Emmen 1.58 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.46 against Emmen attack 0.76 / defence 0.79, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 18% | Draw 25% | Emmen 57%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 67%, Emmen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.