ADO Den Haag 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as ADO Den Haag welcome De Graafschap to Bingoal Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 25 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bingoal Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (ADO Den Haag) versus 1.60 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of ADO Den Haag: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for De Graafschap, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
ADO Den Haag trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
De Graafschap trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 72% and De Graafschap 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 69% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.54 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.960 / defence 1.002 | De Graafschap attack 1.256 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 ADO Den Haag games / 49 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | De Graafschap 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 80% | De Graafschap 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.54 / De Graafschap 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.960 / def 1.002 | De Graafschap attack 1.256 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.85
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap part of?
ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 31% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): ADO Den Haag 3W | Draws 3 | De Graafschap 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from ADO Den Haag's attack rating (0.96) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus ADO Den Haag's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
31%
3.28
26%
3.85
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.39
1.85
De Graafschap xG
3.28
31%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.85 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 21W 18D 12L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 24W 11D 16L from 51 games, 1.63 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: ADO Den Haag on 1.59 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (9W 10D 6L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.80 scored and 1.51 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 21W 18D 12L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or De Graafschap away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.48 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
ADO Den Haag's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
3
Draws
1
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, De Graafschap have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ADO Den Haag at 72%, De Graafschap at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for ADO Den Haag and 76% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of ADO Den Haag's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 76% of De Graafschap's.
Do ADO Den Haag and De Graafschap tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out ADO Den Haag 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat ADO Den Haag 1-2 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.54 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.26 / defence 1.08, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 31% | Draw 26% | De Graafschap 44%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 69%, De Graafschap 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.59 PPG, De Graafschap 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.