Virtus Entella 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Virtus Entella take on Palermo.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Virtus Entella host Palermo at Stadio Comunale in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Virtus Entella — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale, Virtus Entella have gone 3W 3D 0L this season (6 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Virtus Entella are significantly better at Stadio Comunale than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palermo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Virtus Entella at 1.20 PPG versus Palermo's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Virtus Entella register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Palermo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Virtus Entella in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Virtus Entella 50% versus Palermo 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Virtus Entella 33% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Virtus Entella 1.01 xG and Palermo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Virtus Entella attack 0.861 / defence 1.020 | Palermo attack 0.939 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.079. Data: 12 Virtus Entella games / 50 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Virtus Entella 31% | Draw 36% | Palermo 32%. Fair-value odds: Virtus Entella 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Palermo 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Virtus Entella 67% | Palermo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Virtus Entella vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Virtus Entella 31% | Draw 36% | Palermo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Virtus Entella 1.01 / Palermo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Virtus Entella attack 0.861 / def 1.020 | Palermo attack 0.939 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Virtus Entella xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Palermo xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Virtus Entella vs Palermo kick off?
Virtus Entella vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadio Comunale.
What was the final score in Virtus Entella vs Palermo?
Virtus Entella 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Virtus Entella vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale.
What competition is Virtus Entella vs Palermo part of?
Virtus Entella vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Virtus Entella vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Virtus Entella a 31% chance of winning, Palermo a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Virtus Entella vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Virtus Entella and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Virtus Entella vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Virtus Entella and Palermo in?
Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Virtus Entella's attack rating (0.86) and Palermo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Virtus Entella's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
36%
2.75
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Virtus Entella xG
Total xG
2.04
1.03
Palermo xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Virtus Entella vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Virtus Entella and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Virtus Entella and 1.03 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Virtus Entella vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Virtus Entella come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Virtus Entella — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Virtus Entella's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Virtus Entella are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Virtus Entella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Virtus Entella are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Virtus Entella
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Virtus Entella and Palermo in coming into this match?
Virtus Entella have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Palermo have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Virtus Entella at home or Palermo away?
Virtus Entella's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Virtus Entella at home: 2.20 PPG; Palermo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Virtus Entella or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Virtus Entella have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palermo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Virtus Entella
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Virtus Entella and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Virtus Entella have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Virtus Entella and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Virtus Entella and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Virtus Entella 60%, Palermo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Virtus Entella and 20% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Virtus Entella keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palermo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Virtus Entella home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Virtus Entella play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Virtus Entella's recent matches and 40% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Virtus Entella vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Virtus Entella's recent games and 20% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Virtus Entella and Palermo tend to score early?
Virtus Entella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palermo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Virtus Entella and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Virtus Entella 1.01 xG and Palermo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Virtus Entella attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Palermo attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Virtus Entella 31% | Draw 36% | Palermo 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Virtus Entella 33%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Virtus Entella's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.