Vicenza Virtus 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Vicenza Virtus welcome Pisa to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Serie B matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Pisa — 3.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Vicenza Virtus trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Pisa trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vicenza Virtus 33% | Pisa 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vicenza Virtus 33% | Pisa 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG and Pisa 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.808 / defence 1.215 | Pisa attack 1.176 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.304. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 3 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 27% | Pisa 56%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Pisa (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pisa at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Vicenza Virtus 33% | Pisa 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 27% | Pisa 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Vicenza Virtus 0.98 / Pisa 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 0.808 / def 1.215 | Pisa attack 1.176 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Pisa (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa?
Vicenza Virtus 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 17% chance of winning, Pisa a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Pisa in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 0W-0D-3L in 3 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vicenza Virtus's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Vicenza Virtus's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
17%
5.76
27%
3.73
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
2.84
1.86
Pisa xG
5.76
17%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
3%
37.11
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.86 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vicenza Virtus come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 2.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Pisa in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pisa in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vicenza Virtus and Pisa runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vicenza Virtus
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2022, when Pisa 2-2 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vicenza Virtus see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Vicenza Virtus 33% BTTS, Pisa 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Vicenza Virtus and 33% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 67%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 33% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Pisa tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pisa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Vicenza Virtus 1-3 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 0.98 xG and Pisa 1.86 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Pisa attack 1.18 / defence 1.15, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 17% | Draw 27% | Pisa 56%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 33%, Pisa 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Vicenza Virtus shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.