Vicenza Virtus 2-1 Alessandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alessandria at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alessandria make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vicenza Virtus have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Virtus have gone 0W 2D 7L this season (9 games, 0.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Alessandria are 0.80 PPG clear of Vicenza Virtus in recent Serie B fixtures (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Alessandria — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vicenza Virtus 53% versus Alessandria 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vicenza Virtus 53% | Alessandria 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.40 xG and Alessandria 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.054 / defence 1.548 | Alessandria attack 0.970 / defence 1.361. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 1.256. Alessandria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.361 — this is suppressing Vicenza Virtus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Vicenza Virtus games / 19 Alessandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 24% | Alessandria 48%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Alessandria 2.08. Alessandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alessandria are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Vicenza Virtus 56% | Alessandria 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 24% | Alessandria 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.40 / Alessandria 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.054 / def 1.548 | Alessandria attack 0.970 / def 1.361 | league avg home 0.976 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Alessandria xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria?
Vicenza Virtus 2 - 1 Alessandria.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 28% chance of winning, Alessandria a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Alessandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vicenza Virtus's attack at 1.05x the league average against Alessandria's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alessandria's attack (0.97x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
28%
3.59
24%
4.19
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.28
1.89
Alessandria xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
4%
23.62
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.89 for Alessandria, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 0.42 PPG on a 2W 2D 15L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alessandria's form line: 6W 2D 11L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alessandria are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Vicenza Virtus have posted 0.22 PPG from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
On the road, Alessandria have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alessandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Alessandria are on 1.11 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
Alessandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 2D 15L in their last 19 games (0.42 PPG), while Alessandria have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vicenza Virtus at home or Alessandria away?
Alessandria's away record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vicenza Virtus at home: 0.22 PPG; Alessandria away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Vicenza Virtus
0
Draws
0
Alessandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria?
From 2 meetings on record, Vicenza Virtus have won 2, Alessandria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2022, when Alessandria 0-1 Vicenza Virtus.
Who has won more matches between Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria?
Vicenza Virtus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vicenza Virtus 56%, Alessandria 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vicenza Virtus) and 44% (Alessandria).
On the defensive side: Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 44% of games; Alessandria in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Alessandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Alessandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Vicenza Virtus's recent matches and 44% of Alessandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Alessandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vicenza Virtus's recent games and 44% of Alessandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Alessandria tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Alessandria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vicenza Virtus defy the odds to beat Alessandria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vicenza Virtus beat Alessandria 2-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vicenza Virtus 1.40 xG and Alessandria 1.89 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Alessandria landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vicenza Virtus attack 1.05 / defence 1.55 against Alessandria attack 0.97 / defence 1.36, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vicenza Virtus 28% | Draw 24% | Alessandria 48%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Vicenza Virtus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vicenza Virtus 53%, Alessandria 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Alessandria's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alessandria arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.42. Form was overturned, with Vicenza Virtus winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.