Venezia 1-0 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 80% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Virtus Entella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 27 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Virtus Entella have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella away from home this season: 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Virtus Entella's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Virtus Entella 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 59% | Virtus Entella 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.66 xG and Virtus Entella 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.398 / defence 0.785 | Virtus Entella attack 0.723 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.075. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Venezia's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 17 Venezia games / 17 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 80% | Draw 14% | Virtus Entella 6%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | Virtus Entella 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 50% | Virtus Entella 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 80% | Draw 14% | Virtus Entella 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 43% | xG Venezia 2.66 / Virtus Entella 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.398 / def 0.785 | Virtus Entella attack 0.723 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Venezia (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Virtus Entella xG
43%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Venezia vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 December 2025 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Virtus Entella?
Venezia 1 - 0 Virtus Entella.
Where is Venezia vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Virtus Entella part of?
Venezia vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 80% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Virtus Entella in?
Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Virtus Entella (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Virtus Entella's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.66. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.72x) against Venezia's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
80%
1.25
14%
6.95
6%
18.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.27
0.61
Virtus Entella xG
1.25
80%
Home win
6.95
14%
Draw
18.18
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
54%
1.84
7%
14.28
Win to Nil
44%
2.30
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Venezia and 0.61 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Virtus Entella?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Venezia's recent record stands at 9W 5D 3L from 17 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella, meanwhile, have gone 3W 7D 7L across 17 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Virtus Entella heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 7W 0D 1L from 8 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Virtus Entella's away record stands at 0W 2D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.94 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Virtus Entella away?
Venezia's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.62 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Venezia or Virtus Entella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Virtus Entella in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Virtus Entella 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Virtus Entella?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Virtus Entella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 38%, Virtus Entella 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Venezia and 50% for Virtus Entella. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Virtus Entella in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Venezia's recent matches and 50% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Virtus Entella's.
Do Venezia and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Venezia edge out Virtus Entella 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Virtus Entella 1-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 2.66 xG and Virtus Entella 0.61 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.40 / defence 0.79 against Virtus Entella attack 0.72 / defence 1.42, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 80% | Draw 14% | Virtus Entella 6%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 59%, Virtus Entella 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.