Venezia 1-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Venezia at 56% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Ternana encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Venezia welcome Ternana to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Venezia — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Venezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ternana stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Ternana away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Venezia) versus 1.50 (Ternana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams have scored in at least 90% of each side's games (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Venezia hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Ternana and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Venezia 1–0 Ternana — a Venezia win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Venezia and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).

Ternana in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 63% and Ternana 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Ternana 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Ternana surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 2.69 xG and Ternana 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.449 / defence 1.331 | Ternana attack 1.142 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.449 — their 2.69 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Ternana's defence rating of 1.367 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Venezia's projected output up. Venezia's defence rating of 1.331 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ternana's projected output up. Data: built from Venezia's last 59 games and Ternana's last 59.

Result probabilities: Venezia 56% | Draw 19% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.80 | Draw 5.22 | Ternana 3.95. The model has a clear lean to Venezia (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 83% | BTTS Yes probability 79% | Total xG 4.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 83% — a total xG of 4.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% — both xG figures (2.69 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Venezia 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 83% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 79%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 90% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 90% (last 10 away games).

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