Venezia 2-1 Spal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spal at 41%, yet in-form Venezia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Venezia vs Spal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo plays host to Venezia versus Spal in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this season.
Spal (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spal have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Venezia's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Spal's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Venezia 0W, Spal 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Spal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Spal half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Spal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 49% | Spal 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.90 xG and Spal 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.864 / defence 1.312 | Spal attack 0.847 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Data: 23 Venezia games / 61 Spal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 31% | Spal 41%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Spal 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spal at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 70% | Spal 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Spal | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 28% | Draw 31% | Spal 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Venezia 0.90 / Spal 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.864 / def 1.312 | Spal attack 0.847 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Spal (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Spal xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Spal kick off?
Venezia vs Spal kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Spal?
Venezia 2 - 1 Spal.
Where is Venezia vs Spal being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Spal part of?
Venezia vs Spal is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Spal?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 28% chance of winning, Spal a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Spal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Spal?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Venezia and Spal will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Spal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Spal?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 0 | Spal 1W.
What form are Venezia and Spal in?
Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.86x the league average against Spal's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spal's attack (0.85x) against Venezia's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spal Win
28%
3.56
31%
3.22
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.04
1.14
Spal xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.9 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Spal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Spal expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Venezia and 1.14 for Spal, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Spal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Venezia come into this having played 61 games, going 12W 15D 34L for 0.84 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spal sit at 1.08 PPG from 61 outings (14W 24D 23L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Venezia against 1.08 for Spal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Venezia's home form reads 5W 8D 17L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Spal have taken 1.13 points per game from 30 outings (7W 13D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Venezia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Spal are on 1.20 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Spal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Spal in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 12W 15D 34L in their last 61 games (0.84 PPG), while Spal have gone 14W 24D 23L in their last 61 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Spal away?
Spal's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.77 PPG; Spal away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Venezia
0
Draws
1
Spal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Spal?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Spal have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Spal last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Venezia 2-1 Spal.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Spal 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Venezia) and 33% (Spal).
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 27% of games; Spal in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Spal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Spal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Venezia's games and 43% of Spal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Spal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Venezia's recent games and 33% of Spal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Spal tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Spal in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Spal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Spal 2-1 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.90 xG and Spal 1.14 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Spal attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 28% | Draw 31% | Spal 41%, with Spal to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 49%, Spal 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Spal's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 0.84 PPG, Spal 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.