Ternana 5-0 Vicenza Virtus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vicenza Virtus at 40%, yet in-form Ternana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vicenza Virtus make the trip to Stadio Libero Liberati to face Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ternana (all games): 3W 1D 4L across 8 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.25 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 0D 7L from 8 games (0.38 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Ternana's 1.25 PPG return is 0.87 points per game ahead of Vicenza Virtus's 0.38 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Vicenza Virtus half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 62% versus Vicenza Virtus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 50% | Vicenza Virtus 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.47 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.986 / defence 1.253 | Vicenza Virtus attack 1.049 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.233. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Ternana games / 8 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 40%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Vicenza Virtus 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vicenza Virtus at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (1.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vicenza Virtus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 50% | Vicenza Virtus 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 34% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Ternana 1.47 / Vicenza Virtus 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.986 / def 1.253 | Vicenza Virtus attack 1.049 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Vicenza Virtus (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Vicenza Virtus xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus?
Ternana 5 - 0 Vicenza Virtus.
Where is Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 34% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vicenza Virtus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ternana and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Vicenza Virtus in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-0D-7L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ternana's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Vicenza Virtus's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (1.05x) against Ternana's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vicenza Virtus Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.79
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ternana xG
Total xG
3.09
1.62
Vicenza Virtus xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
7%
15.07
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ternana and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ternana and 1.62 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 3W 1D 4L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 1W 0D 7L from 8 games, 0.38 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ternana are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.00 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 0D 7L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Ternana's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.50 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ternana
0
Draws
1
Vicenza Virtus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Vicenza Virtus?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 1, Vicenza Virtus have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Vicenza Virtus last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Vicenza Virtus 3-1 Ternana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ternana and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ternana's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ternana vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ternana's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Ternana and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ternana run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Vicenza Virtus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Vicenza Virtus 5-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.47 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.62 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ternana beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vicenza Virtus landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Vicenza Virtus attack 1.05 / defence 1.44, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 34% | Draw 26% | Vicenza Virtus 40%, with Vicenza Virtus to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 50%, Vicenza Virtus 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Vicenza Virtus's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ternana arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Vicenza Virtus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.