Ternana 1-0 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Perugia at 43%, yet in-form Ternana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ternana vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Perugia in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ternana have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Libero Liberati this season.
Perugia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Ternana's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Perugia's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ternana, 0 for Perugia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 64% versus Perugia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Perugia 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.22 xG and Perugia 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.166 / defence 1.548 | Perugia attack 0.936 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.077. Data: 36 Ternana games / 36 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 27% | Draw 29% | Perugia 43%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Perugia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Perugia at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Perugia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 27% | Draw 29% | Perugia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Ternana 1.22 / Perugia 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.166 / def 1.548 | Perugia attack 0.936 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Perugia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Perugia xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Perugia kick off?
Ternana vs Perugia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Perugia?
Ternana 1 - 0 Perugia.
Where is Ternana vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Perugia part of?
Ternana vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 27% chance of winning, Perugia a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ternana and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Ternana and Perugia in?
Ternana (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Perugia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ternana's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Perugia's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.94x) against Ternana's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.40
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.78
1.56
Perugia xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
13%
7.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ternana and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ternana and 1.56 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 14W 9D 13L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Perugia's form line: 13W 16D 7L from 36 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Ternana against 1.53 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 8W 8D 2L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.08 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Perugia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Perugia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Perugia in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 14W 9D 13L in their last 36 games (1.42 PPG), while Perugia have gone 13W 16D 7L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.44 PPG; Perugia away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Ternana or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Perugia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Perugia won 3-0 on 18 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Perugia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ternana
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Perugia?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Perugia 3-0 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Perugia?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 44%, Perugia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ternana) and 44% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Perugia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ternana's recent matches and 56% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ternana's recent games and 44% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Perugia tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Perugia in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Perugia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Perugia 1-0 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.22 xG and Perugia 1.56 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Perugia landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.17 / defence 1.55 against Perugia attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 27% | Draw 29% | Perugia 43%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ternana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Perugia 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Perugia's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.42 PPG, Perugia 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.