Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sudtirol vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Venezia at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Venezia are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Sudtirol have won 2, Venezia 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 0–3 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 50% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.16 xG and Venezia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.972 / defence 0.832 | Venezia attack 1.534 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.111. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.534 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Sudtirol games / 26 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 42%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Venezia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Sudtirol 1.16 / Venezia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.972 / def 0.832 | Venezia attack 1.534 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Venezia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Venezia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Venezia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Venezia part of?
Sudtirol vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 30% chance of winning, Venezia a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sudtirol and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Venezia?
Record (5 meetings): Sudtirol 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 3W.
What form are Sudtirol and Venezia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.97) and Venezia's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
30%
3.30
27%
3.67
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.58
1.42
Venezia xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.42 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 22D 23L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 22W 19D 23L from 64 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.23 PPG, Venezia on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.39 PPG from 31 outings (11W 10D 10L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 6W 14D 11L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Venezia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 19W 22D 23L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Venezia have gone 22W 19D 23L in their last 64 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Venezia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.39 PPG; Venezia away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Venezia won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Venezia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 64%, Venezia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sudtirol) and 55% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 26% of games; Venezia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sudtirol's games and 61% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sudtirol's recent games and 55% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Venezia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Venezia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 27, as Sudtirol and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.16 xG and Venezia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Venezia attack 1.53 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 30% | Draw 27% | Venezia 42%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 50%, Venezia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.23 PPG, Venezia 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.