Sudtirol 1-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Reggina meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Reggina have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sudtirol, 1.30 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Reggina 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 45% versus Reggina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 26% | Reggina 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Reggina 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.782 / defence 0.931 | Reggina attack 0.971 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.063. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Sudtirol games / 76 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 34% | Reggina 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Reggina 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 50% | Reggina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 35% | Draw 34% | Reggina 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Sudtirol 1.06 / Reggina 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.782 / def 0.931 | Reggina attack 0.971 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Reggina xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Reggina kick off?
Sudtirol vs Reggina kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Sudtirol vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Reggina part of?
Sudtirol vs Reggina is a Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 35% chance of winning, Reggina a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sudtirol and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggina?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Reggina in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Reggina (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.78x the league average against Reggina's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.97x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
35%
2.82
34%
2.94
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.02
0.96
Reggina xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.96 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 14W 16D 8L from 38 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 17L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.45 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 6W 10D 3L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 7W 2D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Reggina in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 14W 16D 8L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Reggina have gone 17W 4D 17L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Reggina away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.47 PPG; Reggina away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Reggina in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sudtirol have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reggina won 4-0 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
0
Draws
1
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggina?
From 3 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Reggina have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Sudtirol 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Reggina?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 63%, Reggina 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Sudtirol) and 42% (Reggina).
On the defensive side: Reggina in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Reggina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sudtirol's games and 53% of Reggina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Reggina tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Reggina in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Reggina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Reggina 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.06 xG and Reggina 0.96 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.78 / defence 0.93 against Reggina attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 35% | Draw 34% | Reggina 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 26%, Reggina 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.53 PPG, Reggina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.