Sudtirol 2-1 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Perugia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Perugia meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marco Druso, Sudtirol have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Marco Druso this season.
Perugia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Perugia 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Perugia 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 30% | Perugia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Perugia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.870 / defence 1.104 | Perugia attack 0.934 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 0.989. Data: 27 Sudtirol games / 65 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 33% | Perugia 33%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Perugia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 60% | Perugia 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 33% | Perugia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Sudtirol 1.03 / Perugia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.870 / def 1.104 | Perugia attack 0.934 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.123 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Perugia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Perugia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Perugia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Perugia?
Sudtirol 2 - 1 Perugia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Perugia part of?
Sudtirol vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 34% chance of winning, Perugia a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sudtirol and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Perugia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Perugia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.87) and Perugia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.93x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
34%
2.96
33%
3.04
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.05
1.02
Perugia xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.02 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 11W 11D 5L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 8W 6D 13L from 27 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Perugia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (4W 8D 2L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.07 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Perugia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Perugia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 11W 11D 5L in their last 27 games (1.63 PPG), while Perugia have gone 8W 6D 13L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Perugia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.43 PPG; Perugia away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Perugia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
0
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Perugia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Sudtirol 2-1 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Perugia?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 71%, Perugia 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Sudtirol and 29% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Perugia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 36% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sudtirol's recent games and 29% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Perugia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Perugia in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Perugia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Perugia 2-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Perugia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Perugia attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 34% | Draw 33% | Perugia 33%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 30%, Perugia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Perugia's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.