Sudtirol 3-0 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Padova make the trip to Stadio Marco Druso to face Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sudtirol (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Padova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Sudtirol, 1.20 for Padova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sudtirol 0W, Padova 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Padova — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 60% versus Padova 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 30% | Padova 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 0.97 xG and Padova 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.851 / defence 1.026 | Padova attack 0.788 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.038. Data: 58 Sudtirol games / 20 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 33% | Padova 30%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Padova 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Padova 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 37% | Draw 33% | Padova 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Sudtirol 0.97 / Padova 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.851 / def 1.026 | Padova attack 0.788 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Padova xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Padova kick off?
Sudtirol vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Padova?
Sudtirol 3 - 0 Padova.
Where is Sudtirol vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Padova part of?
Sudtirol vs Padova is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 37% chance of winning, Padova a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sudtirol and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Padova?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 1 | Padova 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Padova in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Padova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.85x the league average against Padova's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Padova's attack (0.79x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.04
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.81
0.84
Padova xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.84 for Padova, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 10D 6L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Padova sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.25 for Padova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sudtirol's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Padova have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.00 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Padova in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 4W 10D 6L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Padova have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.22 PPG; Padova away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Padova have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sudtirol 3-0 Padova.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Padova?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Padova see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 56%, Padova 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Sudtirol and 22% for Padova.
On the defensive side: Padova in 44%; Sudtirol have failed to score in 44% of games; Padova in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 33% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sudtirol's recent games and 22% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Padova tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Padova in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sudtirol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Padova.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Padova 3-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 0.97 xG and Padova 0.84 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sudtirol beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Padova landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Padova attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 37% | Draw 33% | Padova 30%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 30%, Padova 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Padova's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.10 PPG, Padova 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.