Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sudtirol take on Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 38 as Sudtirol welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Marco Druso. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sudtirol stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juve Stabia are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 56% versus Juve Stabia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 49% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.711 / defence 1.087 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.062. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Sudtirol games / 75 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Juve Stabia 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 50% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Sudtirol 1.03 / Juve Stabia 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.711 / def 1.087 | Juve Stabia attack 0.909 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia part of?
Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 33% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sudtirol and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sudtirol's attack at 0.71x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.96
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
12%
8.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.05 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 20W 26D 29L from 75 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 29D 21L across 75 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 13D 13L from 36 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 6W 16D 14L across 36 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
The Goals Picture
Sudtirol are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.12 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 26D 29L in their last 75 games (1.15 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 25W 29D 21L in their last 75 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Juve Stabia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.19 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sudtirol's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 61%, Juve Stabia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 31% of games; Juve Stabia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sudtirol's games and 58% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sudtirol's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.03 xG and Juve Stabia 1.05 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Juve Stabia attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 33% | Draw 34% | Juve Stabia 34%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 49%, Juve Stabia 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.15 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.