Sudtirol 1-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 15 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brescia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Brescia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Brescia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 53% versus Brescia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 37% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Brescia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.795 / defence 1.130 | Brescia attack 0.891 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.097. Sudtirol's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brescia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Sudtirol games / 57 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 34%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Brescia 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sudtirol 70% | Brescia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Sudtirol 1.12 / Brescia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.795 / def 1.130 | Brescia attack 0.891 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Brescia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Brescia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Brescia kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Sudtirol 1 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Brescia part of?
Sudtirol vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 34% chance of winning, Brescia a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sudtirol and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Brescia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.89x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
34%
2.90
32%
3.13
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.23
1.10
Brescia xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.10 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 6W 8D 5L from 19 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 6L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.32 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 2W 6D 1L from 9 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 2W 3D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Brescia have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Brescia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.33 PPG; Brescia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 67%, Brescia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sudtirol) and 56% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sudtirol's games and 56% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sudtirol's recent games and 56% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Brescia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Brescia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Brescia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Brescia 1-0 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Brescia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brescia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.80 / defence 1.13 against Brescia attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 34%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 37%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.37 PPG, Brescia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.