Spezia 1-1 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Virtus Entella in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Virtus Entella's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Virtus Entella's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Spezia's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Virtus Entella's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 1W, Virtus Entella 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Spezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 36% | Virtus Entella 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.30 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.819 / defence 1.069 | Virtus Entella attack 0.688 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.048. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Spezia games / 22 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 4.55. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 60% | Virtus Entella 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Spezia 1.30 / Virtus Entella 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.819 / def 1.069 | Virtus Entella attack 0.688 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Spezia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Virtus Entella xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Spezia vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Virtus Entella?
Spezia 1 - 1 Virtus Entella.
Where is Spezia vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Virtus Entella part of?
Spezia vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 48% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Spezia and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Virtus Entella?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Virtus Entella 0W.
What form are Spezia and Virtus Entella in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Virtus Entella (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Virtus Entella's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.69x) against Spezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.31
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Virtus Entella xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
6%
16.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spezia and 0.77 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 5W 5D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Virtus Entella's form line: 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Virtus Entella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Spezia against 0.95 for Virtus Entella. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
On the road, Virtus Entella have gone 0W 3D 8L from 11 away games — 0.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.86 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Virtus Entella
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Virtus Entella away?
Spezia's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.09 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
0
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Virtus Entella?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Virtus Entella have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Spezia 1-1 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Virtus Entella?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Virtus Entella 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Spezia) and 36% (Virtus Entella).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 27% of games; Virtus Entella in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spezia's recent matches and 46% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Spezia's recent games and 36% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 23, as Spezia and Virtus Entella drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.30 xG and Virtus Entella 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.07 against Virtus Entella attack 0.69 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 48% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 22%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 36%, Virtus Entella 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.91 PPG, Virtus Entella 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.