Spezia 2-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Venezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Spezia are significantly better at Stadio Alberto Picco than their overall form suggests.
Venezia (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Venezia are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Spezia 3W, Venezia 2W, 0D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 50% versus Venezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 42% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.20 xG and Venezia 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.080 / defence 1.157 | Venezia attack 1.314 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.084. Venezia have an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 74 Spezia games / 36 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 26% | Draw 29% | Venezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Venezia 2.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 50% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 26% | Draw 29% | Venezia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Spezia 1.20 / Venezia 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.080 / def 1.157 | Venezia attack 1.314 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Venezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Venezia xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Venezia kick off?
Spezia vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Spezia 2 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Spezia vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Venezia part of?
Spezia vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 26% chance of winning, Venezia a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Spezia and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 3W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Spezia and Venezia in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Spezia's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.31x) against Spezia's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.48
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.65
Venezia xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
5%
20.34
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Spezia and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Spezia and 1.65 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 74 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 25W 23D 26L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 28W 23D 23L from 74 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Spezia against 1.45 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.54 PPG from 37 outings (16W 9D 12L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 7W 18D 12L from 37 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.42 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Venezia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 25W 23D 26L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Venezia have gone 28W 23D 23L in their last 74 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Venezia away?
Spezia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.54 PPG; Venezia away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Spezia or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Venezia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Spezia 2-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Venezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Spezia) and 51% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Venezia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Spezia's games and 62% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Spezia's recent games and 51% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Venezia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Venezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Venezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Venezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.20 xG and Venezia 1.65 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Venezia attack 1.31 / defence 0.80, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 26% | Draw 29% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 42%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.32 PPG, Venezia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.