Spezia 2-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Venezia at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Spezia face Venezia.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Venezia in Serie B (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Spezia have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Spezia have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Venezia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Spezia, 1.90 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Spezia's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Venezia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Spezia, 1 for Venezia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Spezia 0–1 Venezia — a Venezia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 46% | Venezia 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Spezia surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.99 xG and Venezia 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.794 / defence 0.919 | Venezia attack 1.184 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.170. Spezia's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Spezia's last 37 games and Venezia's last 75.

Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 32% | Venezia 41%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.74 | Draw 3.08 | Venezia 2.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Venezia at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Spezia 60% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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