Spezia 0-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Spezia, 1.30 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Spezia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Modena in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Modena — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 38% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.90 xG and Modena 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.811 / defence 1.139 | Modena attack 0.998 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.057. Data: 53 Spezia games / 53 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 26% | Draw 32% | Modena 42%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Modena 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 70% | Modena 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 26% | Draw 32% | Modena 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Spezia 0.90 / Modena 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.811 / def 1.139 | Modena attack 0.998 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Modena (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Modena xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Modena kick off?
Spezia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Modena?
Spezia 0 - 2 Modena.
Where is Spezia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Modena part of?
Spezia vs Modena is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 26% chance of winning, Modena a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spezia and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
Record (4 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 3 | Modena 0W.
What form are Spezia and Modena in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.00x) against Spezia's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
26%
3.82
32%
3.11
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.20
Modena xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
12.70
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Spezia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Spezia and 1.20 for Modena, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 19D 14L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.34 PPG from 53 outings (17W 20D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Spezia against 1.34 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 11W 7D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.08 points per game from 26 outings (6W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.32 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Modena in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 20W 19D 14L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while Modena have gone 17W 20D 16L in their last 53 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Modena away?
Spezia's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.54 PPG; Modena away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Spezia or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Modena in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won 3-0 on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Modena 3-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 54%, Modena 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Spezia) and 42% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Modena in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spezia's recent matches and 54% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Spezia's recent games and 42% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Modena tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Modena in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Spezia 0-2 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.90 xG and Modena 1.20 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 26% | Draw 32% | Modena 42%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 38%, Modena 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.49 PPG, Modena 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.