Spezia 1-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Spezia and Mantova meet at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Spezia have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Spezia at home: 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Spezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mantova (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mantova's away record over their last 9 away games: 0W 4D 5L (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Spezia's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Mantova's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
Mantova — key trading statistics (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 33% versus Mantova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 39% | Mantova 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 2.21 xG and Mantova 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.385 / defence 0.738 | Mantova attack 0.905 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Spezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.385 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Mantova's defence rating of 1.284 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Spezia's projected output up. Spezia have a tight defence (rating 0.738), which is pulling Mantova's projected output down. Data: built from Spezia's last 56 games and Mantova's last 18.
Result probabilities: Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.42 | Draw 4.96 | Mantova 10.81. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (71%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 56% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Spezia 2.21 / Mantova 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.385 / def 0.738 | Mantova attack 0.905 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Spezia (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mantova xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Mantova kick off?
Spezia vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Spezia 1 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Spezia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Mantova part of?
Spezia vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 19) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 71% chance of winning, Mantova a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Spezia and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Spezia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Spezia's attack at 1.39x the league average against Mantova's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.91x) against Spezia's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 56 games and Mantova's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 3-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
71%
1.42
20%
4.96
9%
10.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.91
0.70
Mantova xG
1.42
71%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
10.81
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
11%
9.08
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
1%
98.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Spezia and 0.70 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Mantova?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Spezia have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 10W 7D 1L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Mantova's form line: 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Spezia have posted 2.75 PPG from their last 8 home games (7W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — Spezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 3D 5L from their last 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Spezia are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.17 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Mantova
Blended
Spezia (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 10W 7D 1L in their last 18 games (2.06 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Mantova away?
Spezia's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 2.75 PPG; Mantova away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Spezia or Mantova been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, Mantova in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Spezia and Mantova, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mantova have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mantova won Mantova 4-1 Spezia on 23 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mantova — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Mantova?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Spezia 0-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 38%, Mantova 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Spezia) and 38% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Mantova in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Mantova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Spezia's recent matches and 50% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Spezia's recent games and 38% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Spezia's recent matches and 62% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Mantova share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 19, as Spezia and Mantova drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 2.21 xG and Mantova 0.70 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.39 / defence 0.74 against Mantova attack 0.91 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 71% | Draw 20% | Mantova 9%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 39%, Mantova 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
Mantova's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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