Spezia 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Empoli (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Spezia. A 0.70 PPG lead over Empoli (1.20 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 5 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Empoli 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 40% | Empoli 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.53 xG and Empoli 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.878 / defence 1.137 | Empoli attack 0.995 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.126. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Spezia games / 30 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 42% | Draw 27% | Empoli 31%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Empoli 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Empoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 42% | Draw 27% | Empoli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Spezia 1.53 / Empoli 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.878 / def 1.137 | Empoli attack 0.995 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Spezia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Empoli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Empoli kick off?
Spezia vs Empoli kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Empoli?
Spezia 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Spezia vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Empoli part of?
Spezia vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Spezia and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 4 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Spezia and Empoli in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.99x) against Spezia's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.69
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.81
1.27
Empoli xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Spezia and 1.27 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, Spezia have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 22D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 13W 24D 31L from 68 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Spezia are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (14W 8D 11L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 8W 7D 18L from 33 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.04 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Empoli in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 24W 22D 22L in their last 68 games (1.38 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 24D 31L in their last 68 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Empoli away?
Spezia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.52 PPG; Empoli away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Spezia or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Empoli in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Spezia 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Empoli?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Empoli 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 64% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Spezia's games and 64% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 64% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Empoli tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Empoli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.53 xG and Empoli 1.27 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Empoli attack 0.99 / defence 1.32, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 42% | Draw 27% | Empoli 31%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 40%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.