Spal 3-4 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spal vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Bari travel to Stadio Paolo Mazza to take on Spal. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spal stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spal's home record at Stadio Paolo Mazza: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Bari have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Spal at 0.90 PPG versus Bari's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Spal have won 0, Bari 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Spal in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spal 46% versus Bari 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spal 32% | Bari 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spal 1.03 xG and Bari 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spal attack 1.026 / defence 1.138 | Bari attack 0.906 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.032. Data: 60 Spal games / 22 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 31% | Bari 35%. Fair-value odds: Spal 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Bari 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Spal 50% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spal vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Paolo Mazza • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spal 34% | Draw 31% | Bari 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Spal 1.03 / Bari 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Spal attack 1.026 / def 1.138 | Bari attack 0.906 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Bari (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Spal xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Bari xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spal vs Bari kick off?
Spal vs Bari kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What was the final score in Spal vs Bari?
Spal 3 - 4 Bari.
Where is Spal vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Paolo Mazza.
What competition is Spal vs Bari part of?
Spal vs Bari is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spal vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Spal a 34% chance of winning, Bari a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spal vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Spal and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Spal vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Bari?
Record (1 meetings): Spal 0W | Draws 1 | Bari 0W.
What form are Spal and Bari in?
Spal (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spal's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bari's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Spal's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Spal xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Bari xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spal vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Spal and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Spal and 1.06 for Bari, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Spal vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spal's recent record stands at 5W 9D 8L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Spal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 5L across 22 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spal heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spal have managed 3W 3D 5L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 5W 4D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spal are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Spal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spal
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spal and Bari in coming into this match?
Spal have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Bari have gone 8W 9D 5L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spal at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spal at home: 1.09 PPG; Bari away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Spal or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bari in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spal
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spal and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Spal have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spal and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Spal 3-4 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Spal and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bari see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spal 54%, Bari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Spal) and 36% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 36%; Bari in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spal home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spal play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Spal's recent matches and 46% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spal vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Spal's recent games and 36% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spal and Bari tend to score early?
Spal have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Bari in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Spal 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Spal 3-4 at Stadio Paolo Mazza, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spal 1.03 xG and Bari 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Spal beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spal attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Bari attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spal 34% | Draw 31% | Bari 35%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spal 32%, Bari 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spal's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bari's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Spal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.