Sampdoria 4-1 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ternana at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sampdoria face Ternana.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Ternana in Serie B (matchday 31). Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form

Sampdoria (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sampdoria's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ternana have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ternana's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sampdoria against 1.40 for Ternana. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sampdoria's games and 70% of Ternana's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Sampdoria edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Sampdoria 2–1 Ternana — a Sampdoria win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 54% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 48% | Ternana 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sampdoria surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Ternana have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.34 xG and Ternana 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.944 / defence 1.243 | Ternana attack 1.029 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.236. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ternana's projected output up. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 30 games and Ternana's last 68.

Result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 26% | Ternana 42%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.17 | Draw 3.80 | Ternana 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.34 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ternana as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Ternana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 70% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 70% (last 10 away games).

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