Sampdoria 0-1 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.50 (Mantova). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mantova trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Mantova 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 38% | Mantova 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.23 xG and Mantova 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.937 / defence 0.974 | Mantova attack 0.696 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.093. Data: 48 Sampdoria games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Mantova 19%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.27 | Draw 2.70 | Mantova 5.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Mantova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Mantova 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Sampdoria 1.23 / Mantova 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.937 / def 0.974 | Mantova attack 0.696 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Mantova xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Mantova kick off?
Sampdoria vs Mantova kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Mantova.
Where is Sampdoria vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Mantova part of?
Sampdoria vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 44% chance of winning, Mantova a 19% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sampdoria and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Record (2 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Mantova (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
44%
2.27
37%
2.68
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
1.97
0.74
Mantova xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.74 for Mantova, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sampdoria have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 10W 20D 18L record — D-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 11W 16D 21L from 48 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.04 PPG, Mantova on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sampdoria have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (8W 9D 7L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 2W 8D 14L from 24 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.12 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Mantova in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 10W 20D 18L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Mantova have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Mantova away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.38 PPG; Mantova away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sampdoria's record when hosting Mantova specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
1
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Mantova?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Mantova have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Mantova 2-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 33%, Mantova 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sampdoria) and 54% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 38% of games; Mantova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Mantova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 62% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sampdoria's recent games and 54% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Mantova tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Mantova in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.23 xG and Mantova 0.74 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Mantova attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 44% | Draw 37% | Mantova 19%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Mantova win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 38%, Mantova 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mantova's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.04 PPG, Mantova 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.