Salernitana 2-1 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Reggiana in Serie B (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Salernitana's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reggiana's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Reggiana's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Reggiana are 0.70 PPG clear of Salernitana over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Salernitana 0–0 Reggiana — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Salernitana — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 71%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 56% versus Reggiana 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 58% | Reggiana 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.05 xG and Reggiana 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.900 / defence 1.306 | Reggiana attack 1.077 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.040. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Reggiana's projected output up. Data: built from Salernitana's last 21 games and Reggiana's last 59.
Result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.12 | Draw 3.14 | Reggiana 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salernitana 60% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Salernitana 1.05 / Reggiana 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.900 / def 1.306 | Reggiana attack 1.077 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Reggiana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salernitana vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Salernitana vs Reggiana kick off?
Salernitana vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Salernitana 2 - 1 Reggiana.
Where is Salernitana vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Reggiana part of?
Salernitana vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 24% chance of winning, Reggiana a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Salernitana and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salernitana vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.90x the league average against Reggiana's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (1.08x) against Salernitana's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from Salernitana's last 21 games and Reggiana's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
24%
4.12
32%
3.14
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.51
1.46
Reggiana xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.79
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salernitana vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.46 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salernitana's recent record stands at 6W 17D 36L from 59 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 16W 24D 19L across 59 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reggiana by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Salernitana heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 4W 7D 18L from their last 29 home games — 0.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 10W 9D 10L across their last 29 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salernitana are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Salernitana (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salernitana
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Salernitana vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Salernitana and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 6W 17D 36L in their last 59 games (0.59 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 16W 24D 19L in their last 59 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.66 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Salernitana or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salernitana have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Reggiana in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Salernitana vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Reggiana?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Salernitana have won 1, Reggiana have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2025: Salernitana 2-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Reggiana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 66%, Reggiana 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Salernitana) and 41% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 34%; Salernitana have failed to score in 34% of games; Reggiana in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salernitana vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salernitana and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Salernitana's recent matches and 41% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Salernitana and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Salernitana's recent games and 41% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Salernitana's recent matches and 62% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Reggiana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Reggiana 2-1 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.05 xG and Reggiana 1.46 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Reggiana attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 24% | Draw 32% | Reggiana 44%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 58%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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