Reggina 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggina host Parma at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Reggina) versus 1.10 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reggina, 1 for Parma and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Parma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Reggina in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 38% versus Parma 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 45% | Parma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.52 xG and Parma 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.073 / defence 1.157 | Parma attack 1.189 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 0.992. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Reggina games / 65 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 40% | Draw 27% | Parma 33%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 50% | Parma 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 40% | Draw 27% | Parma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Reggina 1.52 / Parma 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.073 / def 1.157 | Parma attack 1.189 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.133 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Reggina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Parma xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Parma kick off?
Reggina vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Parma?
Reggina 0 - 1 Parma.
Where is Reggina vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Parma part of?
Reggina vs Parma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 40% chance of winning, Parma a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Reggina and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Reggina 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Reggina and Parma in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.64
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.88
1.36
Parma xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.84
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Reggina and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Reggina and 1.36 for Parma, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina's recent record stands at 26W 12D 27L from 65 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 21L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.38 PPG, Parma on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 16W 4D 12L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 9W 13D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.26 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Parma in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 26W 12D 27L in their last 65 games (1.38 PPG), while Parma have gone 21W 23D 21L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Parma away?
Reggina's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.62 PPG; Parma away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Reggina or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reggina's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reggina
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Reggina 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 38%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Reggina) and 47% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Reggina have failed to score in 34% of games; Parma in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggina's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Reggina's recent games and 47% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Parma tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Parma in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Reggina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Reggina 0-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.52 xG and Parma 1.36 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reggina fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.07 / defence 1.16 against Parma attack 1.19 / defence 1.25, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 40% | Draw 27% | Parma 33%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 45%, Parma 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.38 PPG, Parma 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Parma win broke the near-deadlock. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.