Reggina 3-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Palermo make the trip to Stadio Oreste Granillo to face Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Reggina (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Reggina have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Reggina are significantly better at Stadio Oreste Granillo than their overall form suggests.
Palermo have collected 1.33 PPG across 3 Serie B outings this season: 1W 1D 1L. Last five: W D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.33 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 33% versus Palermo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 67% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.75 xG and Palermo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.194 / defence 0.966 | Palermo attack 0.845 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.061. Data: 41 Reggina games / 3 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 58% | Draw 23% | Palermo 18%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Palermo 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Reggina (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 20% | Palermo 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 58% | Draw 23% | Palermo 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Reggina 1.75 / Palermo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.194 / def 0.966 | Palermo attack 0.845 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Reggina (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Palermo xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Palermo kick off?
Reggina vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Palermo?
Reggina 3 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Reggina vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Palermo part of?
Reggina vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 58% chance of winning, Palermo a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Reggina and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Palermo in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Palermo (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.19) and Palermo's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.84x) against Reggina's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.27
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.61
0.87
Palermo xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
3%
31.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Reggina and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Reggina and 0.87 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Palermo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Reggina have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Reggina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Reggina are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palermo.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reggina are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Palermo in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Palermo have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Reggina or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palermo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Palermo 2-1 Reggina.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 33%, Palermo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Reggina) and 33% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palermo in 33%; Reggina have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Reggina's recent matches and 67% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Reggina's recent games and 33% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggina and Palermo tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Reggina run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Palermo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Palermo 3-0 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.75 xG and Palermo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Reggina beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Palermo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.19 / defence 0.97 against Palermo attack 0.84 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 58% | Draw 23% | Palermo 18%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 67%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Palermo managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.